Regional communities are about to become Sydney's dumping ground

That's the opinion of a senior waste industry source who spoke to ACM about the crisis coming to the Southern Inlands and beyond.

"There is a significant waste crisis in the Sydney basin, the landfills there are operating at capacity and will be out of capacity for the waste generated by 2030," he said.

"Sydney can't get approval or build new landfills in that time."

He said this had been confirmed by government-commissioned independent modelling, and without greater incentives to recycle, millions of tonnes of Sydney's waste will need to be sent to landfill in the regions.

The Southern Highlands will be in the firing line to take on Sydney's waste, with other regions including the Hunter, the Central Tablelands, Tamworth and Gunnedah also most likely to be Sydney's dumping ground beyond 2030.

The source pointed at government-commissioned independent modelling outputs seen by industry, which shows that on the current levels of waste generation and without greater incentives to recycle, millions of tonnes of Sydney's waste would need to be sent to landfill in the regions and/or interstate.

At a recently held industry workshop, the NSW waste management industry was briefed on the findings of independent experts Arcadis, who were commissioned by the EPA on Sydney's waste and landfill crisis.

"(Their modelling) clearly shows a multi-million tonne gap between waste generated and landfill," the industry source said.

"As it stands today that waste will leave the Sydney basin and go to regional NSW or interstate.

The industry source says the waste levy is not effectively achieving landfill diversion, and levy funds are not adequately reinvested.

"NSW landfills are already operating at capacity and by 2030 there will be major structural shortfalls in landfill capacity in Sydney," he said.

He says there are insufficient resource recovery and recycling projects under development to deal with the landfill shortfall.

"There are no new landfills or expansions/new cells for landfills that have recently been approved, nor are any of them in formal planning processes," he said.

If Sydney doesn't start to recycle soon, the infrastructure simply won't be available to meet the amount of waste being produced.

"In part the solution is to recycle the way out of the crisis. Landfill isn't the long-term solution here," the industry source said.

"Every bit of recycling extends the life of the landfills, and buys time."

The source said that at the recent workshop, industry was asked to provide feedback on a "lack of comprehensive strategic plan for waste infrastructure" across Sydney.

He said it was also noted that there was "no long-term or strategic protection of waste sites within metro areas".

"There will always be landfill, and even with the state-based 80 percent resource recovery targets that says there will always be landfill, there will always be certain types of material like contaminated soil, asbestos or different residuals that do go to landfill," he said.

"But there is a lot more heavy lifting recycling can do if the problem is properly acknowledged and the right solutions are in place."

A spokesperson said the EPA was working with industry and councils "to understand the challenges to infrastructure investment and identify opportunities to improve capacity".

"This work will form part of a NSW Waste Infrastructure Plan, which will strategically guide decision-making and investment in critical waste and resource recovery infrastructure," she said.

She said the recently commissioned updated modelling reassessed Greater Sydney's future landfill capacity.

"The draft findings show capacity from existing residual waste facilities servicing Greater Sydney will fall short of projected demand from 2030 for putrescible waste, and from 2032 for non-putrescible waste," the spokesperson said.

"While it's essential we have infrastructure in place to safely manage waste, the NSW Government is also looking at how we can divert more waste from landfill by reducing waste generation and increasing resource recovery.

On Tuesday (June 4) the NSW Government released an issues paper for feedback as part of a review into the waste levy.

"Additionally, the NSW Waste and Sustainable Materials Strategy 2041 (WaSM) focuses on infrastructure investment in organics, plastics, and residual waste, with $356 million in funding for various initiatives, including: $65 million for new organics collection services and processing capability; $24 million for the Strategic Infrastructure Fund; and $10 million for the Circular Plastics Program," the spokesperson said.