Bradley Perrett | China's wealthiest people are leaving the country

They see plenty of attractions in moving, and a traditional constraint on departure - the desire to stay in China to make more money - is weakening as the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping becomes ever more anti-business.

Australia will receive more rich immigrants this year than any other country, according to the report, issued by migration consultancy Henley & Partners. We're expected to receive 5200 of them, and it's a fair bet that China will be among the largest sources.

Henley's data covers movements of people with more than US$1 million of assets available for investment. It relies on research by New World Wealth, a firm that keeps tabs on the rich by using such open sources as LinkedIn. Names aren't published.

From 2013 to 2016, China's net loss of such people was about 8000 to 9000 a year, according to Henley, and the numbers began climbing in 2017, exceeding 15,000 in 2019. Data isn't available for 2020 and 2021, but net departures were 10,800 in 2022 and, trends suggest, will be 13,500 this year.

Trying to track all such movements must be challenging, but the data should at least indicate trends.

When I've discussed migration with wealthy Chinese friends and acquaintances, they've often mentioned the attraction of a more relaxed lifestyle in foreign countries. Life in China can be a bit stressful, and all the more so when you're in business.

The idea of relaxation turns minds particularly to Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and so does another consideration - a clean environment. Chinese cities have much better air than a decade or two ago, but a reputation for healthy living conditions is a notable attraction of those three Commonwealth countries and to some extent the US.

English is, too, since Chinese learn the language at school, though the rich usually don't speak it well. For them, it probably hasn't been important in adulthood, and school was quite a few years ago.

Weak English skills probably encourage many of them to stick together in a new country, not mixing a lot with the rest of society.

Wealthy Chinese often see great advantages in emigrating to give their children or grandchildren a Western education. They perhaps have not looked closely at Australia's performance in international student rankings, but no doubt would send the kids to private schools.

We shouldn't exaggerate the importance of political freedom in someone's decision to leave China. Wealthy people there grumble about the Chinese Communist Party more than others do, but, like almost everyone else, generally just get on with their lives and avoid politics.

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Yet many are nervous about the direction that China is going in, and I've particularly detected a desire for children or grandchildren to grow up in a free society.

If a family is wealthy, there's a higher-than-usual chance that the kids are already set up in another country, having gone there to study. Living close to them is strong incentive for mum and dad to follow.

For the rich, emigration can be both easier and harder.

It's easier because they can consider applying for investment visas. Australia is one country that offers a path to permanent residency, and eventually a passport, in return for investment. Indeed, investment visas are available from nine of the 10 countries that will receive the most wealthy immigrants this year, according to Henley's report.

This is good policy for Australia. We require investment of $2.5 million for a visa, but the average wealth of applicants would be much higher. Having more rich people means more tax revenue, and their investments contribute to more and better job opportunities.

Also, Australia is always looking for foreign capital. That's what having a current account deficit means. Immigrants' money helps cover it.

Still, for people leaving China, taking money out is not easy. To keep the yuan stable against the US dollar, the government greatly restricts movement of capital. There are tricks for getting around the rules, but they're not easy or cheap to use.

Another difficulty for rich Chinese is that they probably need to stay in China if they're still fully focused on making money. They're not like 20-somethings of more modest means who have only parents to leave behind.

A common solution is for one member of a married couple to emigrate first, making it easy for the other to join later.

For one rich family I know, and no doubt for many others, the next generation is supposed to take over the family business and is therefore also constrained in emigrating.

But the gravitation of a business becomes less when making money becomes harder, as it is in China these days.

Around 2011, the economy came off its spectacular three-decade run of 10 per cent average annual growth, dropping to around 7 per cent. Business opportunities shrank somewhat, and it's notable that Henley's figures for emigration of the wealthy picked up a few years after the transition.

Since Xi took office in 2012, government policy has become ever more slanted away from private enterprise and towards state companies. And economists now see near-term growth of only about 5 per cent.

The great majority of Chinese who have done well in business will stick with it. But if money is now not so easy to make, we can expect more of them to browse foreign countries' rules on investment visas - including Australia's.