Nicholas Stuart | Bill Shorten's political revival and revamp of the NDIS has been a sight to behold

Until the last minute the polls predicted victory: defeat came with a sudden viciousness. Alongside the personal devastation of losing came the blame and disdain from colleagues and courtiers who, moments before, had been lauding his brilliance, style, and smarts.

Finally, on that night, all the certainties in Shorten's life suddenly collapsed.

No person, no-one, is more bereft of a future than a failed opposition leader.

Initially Shorten licked his wounds. His colleagues ignored him. He was demoted from shadow cabinet and, almost as a (bad) joke, tossed the NDIS portfolio - callously thrust back into the first junior government job he'd been given more than a decade earlier.

How would he treat this demotion? Spend his time lobbying for nice cushy posting to Paris, London or Washington perhaps?

Or maybe positioning himself instead for a lucrative business career with his contacts and insider knowledge? Either path was there for the taking and nobody could have blamed him.

He began by going through the motions - chatting, talking, and professing commitment - until the moment it all changed. It was during one of those hundreds of routine meetings; person after person, explaining their problems.

Shorten today remembers it vividly. He was listening as a person was explaining the massive complexity of engaging with the very scheme Shorten had originally built to transform the lives of people with disability - it wasn't working. Bureaucracy had swallowed the NDIS.

The original ideal had become a confusing labyrinth for those who needed a clear path and an increasingly costly nightmare for taxpayers who were being expected to fund the scheme. It had, as he said, "lost its way". Shorten realised he could really achieve something. He dedicated himself to making a difference.

He began carefully planning the path that would finally lead to last week's announcement of a complete revamping of the scheme.

Labor's first task was to win the 2022 election. Shorten's task was reassuring stakeholders things would be different under Labor; his message simple and accurate. The scheme was a mess. Implementation was chaotic. Things would change.

But no detail - something that itself risked becoming the target of a scare campaign as costs continued to blowout.

Fortunately successive Liberal governments had failed to even attempt to grapple with the increasing problems of the scheme for years and Shorten's words provided reassurance to the advocates. Labor won and the new minister had begun building the support he'd require to challenge the way the system worked.

Immediately after he election he built on that promise, offering his personal recommitment. But then came a caveat. There were problems. There was rorting. A way had to be found to stop the runaway cost blowouts. There would be change.

His actions since the election have offered a case study into how to build the case for change.

Instead of imposing edicts from above Shorten has slowly moved the blocks into place piece-by-piece. Every step has been carefully explained to the people who need to be brought into the fold, from advocates demanding more services to the business lobbies who will be asked to pay for change.

There have been important and necessary personnel movements in the NDIA, and the minister now has a team he can trust in place to smoothly introduce the new model when it's finally unveiled.

But first, in October, a report by an unimpeachable team of advocates for the scheme. This will detail why it's failing and how it needs to be reformed for the better. This is the background to last week's speech at the National Press Club.

That talk, again, showed how carefully this campaign has been planned. Cut through the verbiage, all those words, looking for detail and you realise the minister didn't actually "announce" anything - but that wasn't his mission. Shorten's speech was just another of the chess pieces being deftly moved into place. There were messages for everyone.

The sceptics were reassured the minister had seen the "criminal syndicates" rorting the NDIS and the "shoddy therapies" that should never receive funding: a bone thrown to the right.

But right alongside this promised crackdown on fraud came reassuring vignettes of Shorten's own personal dedication.

"The universe does not grant re-runs, but with every precious minute in the job as NDIS Minister I do feel I've been given a remarkable second chance to serve where my passion beats ... to get it on the right track."

Shorten's words hit their target with the precision of guided missiles. A smooth media campaign accompanied the speech.

Detailed analysis in The Australian Financial Review served to reassure the markets; there was a promise to stop the rorts thrown to Sky and The Daily Telegraph; interviews with informed supporters of the scheme on the ABC dousing understandable worries and concerns from those currently accessing the scheme. It's been the utter opposite of the normal way government does things.

Paul Keating loved the drama of a sudden unveiling of a huge plan to transform our way of life, and the media ate it up.

It's easy to plan coverage around a big spectacle on a certain day and politicians love the idea that they're in control of the agenda that's being outlined.

Shorten's learned - and is now putting into practice - something far more insightful. He understands that if you want real, lasting change, rather than a sudden bang, you need to bring everybody with you. All the stakeholders, from the unwilling and reluctant to the enthusiastic backers of change.

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Shorten's now leveraging his position as Labor royalty to provide him with the space and support he'll need to push his package of reforms through. This speech will deflect questions about the NDIS in the coming budget. The government will be able to brush over whatever numbers it chooses to use, simply insisting change is on its way. Then the release of an Inquiry into the NDIS in October, followed by Shorten's reaction and plans before Christmas, building support all the way.

All very smooth and careful.