The Voice referendum is poised on a knife edge.
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Much of the current debate is about the wording of the suggested constitutional amendment and is being conducted among high-profile advocates for "yes" and "no" votes.
The aim of some "yes" proponents has been to ensure bipartisan support through a compromise about the wording. In turn the wording reflects underlying principles, such as whether the Voice is to both Parliament and executive government or just the former.
There is little doubt that the ultimate framing of the referendum question will be crucial.
So too will be the attitudes of the major political parties. The campaigns by the official "yes" and "no" committees will also be influential.
However, these ingredients are all top-down factors. Bottom-up factors are equally if not more important. They may be a key to the success of the "yes" campaign as there are many individuals and community groups anxious to advocate a "yes" vote.
Many have learned from recent experience, which includes the success of the "yes" campaign for marriage equality in 2017 and the victories of independent candidates and Greens against the major political parties which peaked in last year's federal election. Those models should not be forgotten.
There are variations on the models, but some common themes.
They all include the involvement of many community volunteers in serious engagement with the concerns of local people. They extend community engagement and make it much more personal.
The first independent MP for Indi, Cathy McGowan, has told her story in her autobiography, Cathy Goes to Canberra. She sought to "do politics differently" and to "reinvent community engagement in Australian political life".
Her election in 2013 was the culmination of several background factors.
One was the path-breaking approach to community organisation of the Victorian Women's Trust and its long-term executive director, Mary Crooks.
The central idea was kitchen table conversations. The trust describes it as "a model of civic engagement that revolves around one simple idea that engaging people in the kind of open and honest dialogue that women have had around kitchen tables for centuries has the power to create real change".
It became the Purple Sage Project for rural women that successfully challenged the Victorian government of Jeff Kennett.
This model became central to developing the community momentum that led to McGowan's success.
It was introduced to Indi by one of Crooks' allies, Alana Johnson, the first convener of Voices for Indi, the underlying community organisation. Kitchen table conversations were intensive, widespread, and prolonged.
Ultimately this method and the community organisations which grew out of it multiplied into numerous "Voices for" and Community Independent Projects across Australia.
They feature in a swag of books published since the May 2022 federal election about The Teal Revolution (Margot Saville), Independents' Day (Brooke Turner) and Voices of Us (Tim Dunlop). Added to the bottom-up momentum was the top-down financial heft provided by Simon Holmes a Court's Climate 200, described in The Big Teal.
Somewhat parallel community engagement took place within the successful marriage equality campaign. Tiernan Brady, who directed the Equality campaign, had previously been political director of the successful 2015 "yes" referendum campaign in Ireland.
Brady, who has an international reputation as a campaigner for inclusion, is now advising various Australian advocacy groups, including the Australian Republic Movement. He counsels empathy and understanding in community campaigning.
Fortunately, the "yes" campaign is building on these successful models, emphasising "conversations with people that you know".
Such conversations were critical to the victories by independents and minor parties and to the marriage equality success. It is at this level that doubts can be assuaged, collegiality built, and momentum generated.
The "yes" campaign director, Quandamooka man of Minjerribah Dean Parkin, has said it is time to return the conversation about the Voice to the people. His words are loaded with the familiar language of Crooks and Brady about community engagement.
He speaks of "the millions of discussions that are going to happen across Australia-from kitchen tables to sporting clubs and from farmyards to beachfronts-over the course of 2023, towards landing with a successful yes vote that will bring the country together".
Australians for Indigenous Constitutional Recognition (AICR) has begun to enrol volunteers and to resource local campaigns with information, flyers and posters.
Training and workshops for local volunteers have begun. Many Labor, teal and Green supporters with campaign experience will join the movement.
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National campaigns by political parties and official committees can supplement, but not replace, community-level engagement. As AICR promises, the "conversations we have with the people in our lives can make all the difference".
Success is far from guaranteed, however. The "no" campaign will provide serious opposition, especially if Peter Dutton and the Liberals join it.
Most importantly, community engagement by the "yes" campaign cannot be a tick-the-box exercise. Successful community campaigns don't work that way.
Many people who would be willing to provide financial support must be enthused enough to also get off their backsides to have the necessary conversations.
Electorate by electorate it will need to include many energetic community leaders who devote their lives to the cause for the duration of the campaign.
They must be supplemented in each electorate by hundreds, if not thousands, of enthusiasts who host signage, talk to neighbours, family members and workmates, and knock on doors.
Community organisations, including churches, businesses, and trade unions, which have signified their support for "yes" must activate their members.
Only then will a "yes" vote become attainable.
- John Warhurst is an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University.