![The future of Australia's Defence Forces is taking shape. Picture Getty Images The future of Australia's Defence Forces is taking shape. Picture Getty Images](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/RXMuw2JbrrS7ELSxSY9rkR/9d037fe2-d66b-4b38-80b7-08afc800e648.jpg/r0_562_5473_3644_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Politics is the art of the possible.
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This means, above all, recognising some things are simply fixtures in the firmament. They take on the magical aura of being motherhood issues which can't be questioned.
The Australian car industry used to be one of these; absolutely vital until, quite suddenly, one day it wasn't. The subsidies had become so ridiculous nobody was prepared to maintain them anymore. Nuclear submarines have become a similar untouchable shibboleth today.
Let's define what we're talking about, first, because these aren't actually subs carrying the ultimate deterrent [SSBNs]. Instead they're the far less threatening vessels that use nuclear power for their propulsion [SSNs] which have the role of finding and sinking the SSBNs. These are two completely different strategic beasts although, importantly, it's not at all clear the Australian electorate has any understanding of this. What is, however, demonstrably true is from the moment former prime minister Scott Morrison announced the creation of AUKUS, it gave him a political trump he could use to defeat any opposition that didn't jump on board. Anthony Albanese quickly matched it and accepted nuclear submarines were exactly what this country needed. By doing this he took defence off the table as a political issue and denied Morrison a cudgel with which to beat him in the coming election.
This left Albanese with a problem when he walked into the Lodge. He had to find a way to square the circle. He did what any politician would do - demanded a report.
As it turns out, former Defence chief Angus Houston and former Defence minister [and soon to become new high commissioner to the UK], Steven Smith have apparently handed in much more than a political document providing an answer to the PM's submarine problem. The document establishes a new setting for our forces, foreign relations and, effectively, the way this country will engage with the world.
As the pair began their investigation into future structure of the armed forces, they were working within a fixed reality. Regardless of anything else, they had to deliver a way of equipping the forces with nuclear submarines. It really didn't matter whether Australia actually requires this capability; if there is a simple pathway to acquisition; or if operating a fleet unbalances the rest of the force. No matter what the solution was, nuclear boats needed to be part of that answer. The report hasn't been publicly released [although an unclassified version will be revealed next month], but Albanese has already back it in. This is the nation's future.
The review lays out a clear path for Australia to [eventually] buy into a new generation of guided missile submarines [SSGNs]. This will include industrial participation along the lines of the model adopted for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. While we won't get to build submarines here we will [again, eventually] receive a smaller share of a far bigger project: building a small part of every boat in a tri-nation fleet. That's the mechanics. What flows from this is something far more fundamental: a dramatic change to Australia's defence and strategic posture.
In the 1980s Labor adopted the so-called 'Defence of Australia doctrine'. This allowed the party's left to cover itself with the fig-leaf of independence while simultaneously allowing Defence business to flourish. It was a win-win.
Under subsequent Liberal administrations it became a win-win-win, as Australia's armed forces integrated more and more closely with US forces until distinguishing between the two became simply a matter of uniforms. Today even that smokescreen of independence has disappeared and the camouflage has fallen away. This review marks a fundamental rewriting of the way Australia engages with the world. Any pretence Canberra's policies might offer some kind of 'third way' has been abandoned.
Underlying this new strategic policy is a recognition technical developments are now proceeding at such a rapid pace the world has reached an inflection point. There is simply no alternative to complete integration with your allies if you want modern weaponry. As the Ukraine war is showing, no country has the industrial capacity to develop weapons systems by themselves. Moscow needs Tehran, Kyiv needs the EU, and both sides need Israel.
Two power blocks split the world: one based on Beijing, the other on Washington. AUKUS has embedded Canberra so deeply into the alliance our global influence is now limited to how effectively this country will be able to shape the views of the President. Canberra may as well save on the cost of embassies elsewhere and recall any diplomat not posted to the US.
Views from anywhere else are completely irrelevant. Our Asian neighbours are interested in maintaining good relations with Australia - but simply as a conduit to our far more important relation, America. There is no problem with this, however, it is vital we accept this and understand what it means for our future engagement.
The Army is beginning to do exactly this. The news we won't be getting a division's worth of mechanised vehicles is great because it allows the force to restructure sensibly. Instead of three combat brigades units will be assigned to missions. This will allow specialisation and allow soldiers to focus on traditional fighting roles (working with allies overseas), protecting the country (with a greater role for the reserves), and engaging with our neighbourhood (a vital task).
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The review also provides guidance for defence industry. Dynamic companies like Australia's Northrop Grumman are already tightly integrated with their US parent. The future outlined in this review will assist them to grow that business with the assurance there is no strategic risk in doing so.
Until now there's been no way a local company could hope to continue competing with the breadth and depth of research that's conducted in the US. Although on occasions Aussie scientists have been able to develop world-leading breakthroughs these have become increasingly rare. The best way for this country to continue exposing our developers to top-level research is by participating in it. The only way to do that is by becoming part of the gang.
It means giving up some independence but the review reckons it's worth it.
- Nicholas Stuart is editor of ability.news and a regular columnist.