Nicholas Stuart | No matter how painful, the Ukraine war needs to be resolved

Although the West has promised a paltry number of tanks to Ukraine (14 British Challengers; 31 US Abrams; and an eventual total of 112 German Leopards), these won't change the battlefield dynamic which is now looking increasingly perilous for Kyiv.

Break the war into its seasons.

The conflict began in Spring with deep Russian thrusts into the interior of Ukraine. These failed as Vlodomir Zelenskyy demonstrated the power of inspirational leadership. Summer saw the Russians fall back, repositioning their forces. Autumn brought crisis, with Moscow's troops retreating in disarray. But with Winter has come stasis. Ukraine's soldiers couldn't maintain the momentum of their assault and Vladimir Putin began preparing deep defensive lines. Although he was forced to comb the streets to recruit soldiers and throw half of them straight into battle to stabilise the line, others have now been trained and they're strengthening his positions. The easy gains are gone.

This is significant for what it reveals; that we can't trust Kyiv's narratives. Discount the words and rhetoric because they're stories. The current conflict raging around Bakhmut is a distraction because the town is unimportant: what the battle reveals is vital.

The crucial point - no matter how repugnant it might be that Russia has forced convicts to fight - is that Ukraine's forces are on the defensive. The mercenary armies may be losing heavily, but Putin doesn't care about their lives and they're slowly succeeding. Kyiv begrudgingly admitted losing ground after Moscow showed pictorial proof it has wrested the town from the defenders. The ebb and flow of the current conflict is revealing the invaders can win pitched battles and, as the front congeals and bogs down into struggles for towns nobody's ever heard of, Russia is becoming stronger. How can Zelenskyy continue convincing Ukrainians that it's worth dying to hold this farm, that village, another hill. At some point the defenders will just want the war to end - particularly as it becomes obvious this war is no longer an existential struggle.

However outrageous Putin's claims may be, the reality is that he is now in control of this war. By claiming the four provinces he has established his victory conditions. Yes, this is disgusting and allowing him to keep the regions he pretends to have liberated is loathsome. But how many Ukrainian's will be prepared to die to push those gains back?

Zelenskyy's talk of regaining Crimea can now be seen as nothing more than the bluster it is. The reality of the battlefield is overwhelming his dreams and a few tanks can't bulldoze a route to victory. The requirement now is not for noise but action.

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Somehow, Zelenskyy has to pivot quickly, before he looses legitimacy in the eyes of his people and the international donors propping up his regime. Last week the stench of corruption within the government grew too high and the President finally had to begin sacking ministers and staffers. Bribe money had been demanded for providing food for the troops and one of Zelenskyy's own staffers had even stolen an SUV intended for charity work. Although Transparency International says Russia is the most corrupt country in Europe, Ukraine comes a close second. It's difficult to expect troops to fight and die for a corrupt regime. Who wants to die if their families are suffering the risk of random missiles blasting their lives apart while others are profit from war and are living in safety.

Zelenskyy needs to not simply talk about grand objectives but demonstrate to his people that he can resolve the war. The next months will be vital and difficult, even impossible, decisions must be taken. To some extent he will have to bend to Putin's demands, because the Russian leader remains the only person who has the power to bring the war to a conclusion. The dictator's grasp on power appears as complete as ever. His forces have been revealed as brittle, but they haven't cracked and Putin remains in sole command of one of the world's most powerful conventional armies. There is no sign it is about to collapse.

Even under intense pressure the Russian leader has played his hand carefully. He has, for example, kept a tight hold of Zaporizhzhia, which allows him to continue holding the menacing prospect of allowing a massive radioactive leak from the nuclear reactors to drift over Europe. By engineering an "accident" like this, Putin retains the ability to threaten the West, secure in the knowledge that nothing it does can threaten him. He still holds the trump cards.

As the new year begins the only thing Ukraine can do is launch a sudden assault along the Baltic coast, threatening the land bridge to the Crimea. This is why Russia has prepared defensive lines along this long, vulnerable stretch. The generals know a couple of trenches won't, by themselves, stop Ukraine's tanks but they will force Zelenskyy to reveal where the assault is coming from. Putin now believes he can defeat an assault after Kyiv has committed its forces. He doesn't care if the war stretches on long enough for a few gifted tanks to come into operation. Putin believes he can use his massive numbers to defeat them when they arrive.

This war won't end in victory. It can only conclude when both sides agree to a negotiated outcome.

The myth that the West has a "responsibility to protect" is as dangerous as the tale Putin tells about Ukrainians being part of the "Russian people". Children believe in stories but that's where they belong: in the nursery.

Since 1947 the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has gauged the risk of the total obliteration of humanity in war or other disaster. Six days ago they changed their doomsday clock, resetting it at ninety seconds to midnight - nearer disaster than ever before. Tanks can't protect anyone from a threat like this.