The year of the teal independent

Anthony Albanese and Labor had won the federal election the night before, but the two-party hegemony had been shaken to its foundations.

The faces of the uprising were six professional women, representing voters in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth fed up with a government and prime minister with a tin ear to their concerns on global warming, political integrity and the treatment of women.

The flame which independent Cathy McGowan had ignited in Indi almost a decade ago, which Zali Steggall had fanned in Warringah in 2019 was now ablaze on both sides of the continent.

Five months have passed since teal independents Monique Ryan, Allegra Spender, Sophie Scamps, Kate Chaney, Kylea Tink and Zoe Daniel were sworn into the Federal Parliament.

The causes and consequences of their success are still being analyzed.

Was the teal wave the result of a one-off, perfect storm of events; a very specific antidote to rid the electorate of Scott Morrison?

Or did it represent something more permanent?

If the latter proves true, the Liberals face an existential crisis.

Labor, too, might not be spared.

In an alternate version of Australian political history, the independents wave never reaches the shore.

Had Morrison called the federal election for late 2021, as some of his colleagues reportedly advised him to do, the independents would have been denied much-needed time to fundraise, organise volunteers and elevate their own profiles.

Morrison ignored the advice, no doubt believing that a summer free of COVID-19 restrictions would turn disgruntled voters back to the Coalition in time for an election in March or May.

It didn't happen.

The Omicron variant and the rapid antigen test debacle through January served to reinforce the worst perceptions of a prime minister who, for many, was too slow to act and too quick to blame once disaster struck.

The delay in calling Australians to the polls bought the teals time, which they didn't waste.

With the backing of Simon Holmes a Court's Climate 200 fundraising vehicle, the six victorious candidates raised a combined $10.2 million in donations to fight Liberal incumbents.

Allegra Spender spent a staggering $2.1 million to defeat Liberal Dave Sharma in the seat of Wentworth in Sydney's affluent eastern suburbs.

Arguably just as important as the donations were the volunteers, who massed in their thousands to help spread the message.

The Liberals and some in the media attempted to tar the teals as "fake" or "Labor independents".

It didn't work.

Once the final votes had been tallied and the belated concessions begrudgingly made, the Liberals no longer held a seat overlooking Sydney Harbor.

It had lost Julie Bishop's old Perth-based seat of Curtin to Kate Chaney. It had lost Goldstein to Zoe Daniel and Josh Frydenberg's prized seat of Kooyong to Monique Ryan.

As comprehensive as the result was on May 21, it wasn't enough to put the crossbench in a balance of power position where it could forcefully influence or even block the government's agenda.

Labor had won 77 seats, meaning it could pass legislation through the House of Representatives without concession or negotiation.

But Albanese had promised a more collaborative, inclusive and less partisan style of politics.

The first test of this pledge, and of the teals' role in the Federal Parliament, came with a bill to legislate the new government's emissions reduction targets.

Despite not needing their votes, Labor accepted a number of tweaks from the crossbench.

It was a mutually beneficial deal.

Albanese came off looking more collaborative, as promised, and the independents could report back to their constituents with evidence of a role in shaping a more ambitious climate action agenda.

But it was a very limited role.

Labor didn't concede on anything of substance, including a 43 per cent emissions reduction target which the teals regard as inadequate.

A similar situation played out during debate to establish a national anti-corruption commission, a policy priority for Labor and the teals.

The crossbench - led by Indi MP Helen Haines - pushed Labor to lower the threshold for the commission to hold hearings in public.

The government didn't concede on the "exceptional circumstance" bar to public hearings, and it didn't need to, because it could count on support from Peter Dutton's Coalition to pass the bill.

Labor's decision to deal with Dutton carries significant political risk.

The rise of the teals (and the Greens' success) was primarily a repudiation of Morrison and the Coalition, but also a rejection of the major parties and the closed-shop style of politics which has come to define them.

Labor, which won majority government with a primary vote of just 32.6 per cent, ought to be careful.

The six teals elected on May 21 show what can happen when a party, in government or opposition, stops listening to voters.

The recent past has shown that once an independent wins a seat, it is hard to dislodge them.

Haines is continuing Cathy McGowan's legacy in Indi. Rebekha Sharkie has turned the once-Liberal heartland seat of Mayo in South Australia into safe ground.

Zali Steggall extended her margin in Warringah, thanks, in part, to the Liberals' decision to select the divisive Katherine Deves to challenge her.

But the new breed face a different set of challenges.

The ANU and Griffith University's election study found that four in five teal voters were not disaffected Liberals, but tactical Labor and Greens supporters who considered the independent candidate as the best chance of defeating the incumbent Liberal.

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The study's co-author, professor Ian McAllister, said with the sitting Liberal ousted, Labor and Greens supporters in those seats might switch back to their own side.

At the next election the teals won't have the benefit of arguably their most potent weapon of the 2022 campaign - Scott Morrison.

Labor is also acting on their main policy priorities of climate change, integrity and the treatment of women, potentially dulling the strength of their argument.

One school of thought suggests the teals could fade into political irrelevance during this term and, having served their purpose in deposing Scott Morrison, are disposed of themselves.

But at this early stage, that seems unlikely.

Aside from one publicised visit from Sussan Ley to the lost seat of North Sydney and comments from Dutton in the Nine papers, the Liberals have done little to demonstrate an interest in reclaiming the old heartland seats.

The Coalition's opposition to Labor's emissions reduction targets and advocacy of nuclear energy are the sort of policy positions more likely to repel than attract voters in those seats.