Backing Russia, China no longer cares what the West thinks

This week it has stepped up its conspicuous backing for Russia, even as that country perpetrates the worst war of aggression since World War II.

And, in a way, that is helpful. As China has been doing for a decade, it is making its opponents wake up.

China certainly has strong reasons for having a friendship with Russia. Its mistake is to make the relationship so obvious, regardless of what Russia does.

Meeting Vladimir Putin on Thursday, Xi Jinping said China was ready to work with Russia "in extending strong support to each other on issues concerning their respective core interests."

He called Putin his "old friend."

There was just a hint at Chinese reservations about the war: Putin said Xi had expressed questions and concerns about the situation. My bet is that Xi was concerned that Russia was doing so badly, though that won't be what he said.

It was back in February when Xi publicly bound China with Russia in what the two sides called a "no-limits" partnership. Xi knew that within weeks Putin was at least likely to attack Ukraine, so he was willing to let China be smeared by some association with that foul deed.

He and other Chinese leaders no doubt reckoned, like most observers, that Russia would easily win. Perhaps they thought the whole business would quickly blow over.

After the invasion began, China spent a few days issuing such diplomatic blather as urging restraint - a good approach for a country that didn't want to worsen its reputation and also not harm Russia's position.

Then came what was a great turning point in China's relations with the democratic world, though hardly anyone drew that conclusion at the time. As people in Europe, especially, looked aghast at the violence and death unleashed by Putin's army, China in March began backing the war, especially in domestic propaganda.

Taking such a stance could only shock dithering European countries out of their soft attitude to Beijing.

Consider the situation in 2020, when Australia and the US were about three years into their age of awakening about China. Most European countries then were still eight to 10 years behind them. Britain was perhaps coming to its senses, having demeaned itself with obsequious behaviour a decade ago, but most of the continent was still focused on sales to Chinese of handbags, hatchbacks and holidays.

Various antagonistic behaviour by China in the following year or two finally got European minds moving a bit, but in endorsing the war Beijing has now finally opened their eyes. For Europeans more than anyone, Russia's lunge for violent seizure of territory is inexpressibly appalling: just like World War II.

Beijing must have known its endorsement of the war would further antagonise the US, Japan and Australia and line Europeans up with them. We have indeed seen that happen.

But notice the big implication: regarding itself as having entered Cold War II, China now evidently sees no reason to pretend otherwise. Why not let the democracies know it is hostile to them and all their works?

This week we're getting the signal again from the Xi-Putin meeting, just in case we missed it.

Actually, China has had good reasons to send no such signal.

Before the war, the Europeans still had a great capacity for vacillation, and commercial interests would keep bearing on thinking in their capitals. For example, after European countries took aim at Beijing in international meetings in June, Volkswagen chairman Herbert Diess popped up to remind Berlin that the German economy relied heavily on China.

So backing the invasion has been an own-goal by Beijing.

In fact, it's been kicking own-goals for years, especially after Xi took office, presumably with the backing of aggressive nationalists high in the CCP.

Perhaps readers will forgive me a little boastfulness. By 2007 or 2008, I could see clearly enough that China was looming as a terrible threat to Asia-Pacific security. It helped that I had a focus on military affairs, thought a lot about long-term economics and also lived in the country.

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But at that time China was keeping its head down, seeming to be a country that others could live with. I expected it wisely would keep doing so until maybe the late 2020s, when its economy would be so strong that it could switch to hostility and no longer be resisted.

I still think that would have been a good strategy for China.

Instead, Xi threw the switch to aggression in 2013, notably with the attempt at seizing the South China Sea. The change was clear by 2014, and I was delighted. "They've already shown their colours," I thought. "Now the world will wake up."

And so that behaviour goes on. China since then has made even less effort to hide its attitude that the democracies are its enemies. Backing an attempt at dismembering or destroying Ukraine is the clearest signal so far.

Still, friendship with Russia is indeed important to China. If the democracies are its enemies, then their enemy, Russia, is automatically its friend.

And, often forgotten, Russia can be a source of raw materials for China that cannot be cut off by the US Navy.

Russia also has military technology, even if its industry is becoming less competitive and useful in that area.

But if China wanted to promote good relations with the democracies, it would hardly talk a lot about its friendship with Russian. In fact, it no longer cares.