Coalition's Paris climate target in doubt as emissions fluctuated: State of the Environment report

The report, delivered to the former government in 2021, also expressed doubt about Australia's ability to reach net zero emissions by 2050 after the Coalition scraped together an eleventh-hour agreement committing to the target in time for the Glasgow climate summit last year.

Despite years of Coalition government assurances that Australia would meet its Paris target for 2030 emissions "in a canter", the State of the Environment report released on Tuesday said emissions trends since 2016 cast doubt on the nation's ability to reach a 26-28 per cent cut.

"It is not clear whether the current trend will enable Australia to meet its current nationally determined contribution of a 26-28 per cent decrease by 2030 and our recent commitment to net zero emissions by 2050," it said.

The report raised increases and fluctuations in emissions from pollution sources since 2016 - including for land use, fugitive emissions, and use of fuels such as natural gas - in questioning Australia's pathway to the Paris and net zero targets.

Australia contributed about 1.2 per cent of global emissions, making it one of the world's top 15 total emitters, and among its largest carbon polluters per person.

The Coalition government repeatedly claimed Australia would easily meet its Paris commitment to reduce emissions, while also promising the nation would reach net zero by investing in and reducing the cost of low emissions technologies through a "technology roadmap".

Its net zero commitment at Glasgow was widely considered unambitious by international partners, many of which have committed to 2030 targets far surpassing Australia's then-goal to reduce emissions by 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels.

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In unveiling the Coalition's net zero commitment at COP26 last year, then-prime minister Scott Morrison said Australia was on track to exceed its Paris target. An update from the former Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources released in 2021 also said Australia was tracking to surpass its Paris target by up to 9 percentage points and reduce emissions by up to 35 per cent below 2005 levels.

The department said the improved outlook for emissions projections reflected $1.6 billion in new technology-focused emissions reduction measures in the Morrison government's 2021-22 budget, Australia's uptake of renewables, and the latest forecasts including for energy consumption.

Environment Department figures show Australia's carbon emissions have fallen 22 per cent since 2005, however without emissions cuts from changes to land use, the number would be 1.6 per cent.

The State of the Environment report, which will be released after delays from the former Coalition government, found while emissions from electricity, agriculture and waste fell in the years following 2016, carbon pollution from industrial processes and product use, fugitive emissions, and land use increased.

The new Labor government has formally committed to the United Nations it will pursue a more ambitious 2030 emissions reduction target of 43 per cent on 2005 levels, after taking the pledge to the May election.

Labor plans to introduce legislation enshrining the target in the next parliamentary sittings, but the bill faces barriers in Parliament, where it needs the support of the Greens and one other crossbencher to pass the Senate.

Greens leader Adam Bandt has criticised the draft legislation for putting a ceiling on Australia's emissions reductions and failing to protect the target from future governments less committed to climate action.