Newcomers to the inner-Melbourne electorate of Kooyong could be forgiven for not knowing its history as a blue-ribbon Liberal stronghold.
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Wandering the streets, residents are confronted by a sea of teal, the colour that has become a symbol for many independents trying to unseat often deeply entrenched politicians. In Kooyong, paediatric neurologist Monique Ryan is gunning for federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
A Liberal seat for its entire 121-year history, Kooyong became competitive again in 2019 after Mr Frydenberg fended off a strong challenge from high-profile barrister and human rights advocate Julian Burnside, representing the Greens.
This time, teal-coloured billboards, posters and corflutes are plastered on buildings, tram stops and in front of homes throughout Hawthorn, Kew and Camberwell ahead of the 2022 vote.
Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian predicts Kooyong and Goldstein, where former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel is running as an independent against Liberal MP Tim Wilson, are likely to stay blue.
But he says a swing against the sitting Liberal MPs would not bode well for other contests in Victoria the government needs to win, including Chisholm, La Trobe and Higgins.
"If the Liberal Party starts to lose seats like that, whether it's to Labor or an independent, then the party is in a really bad situation," he tells AAP.
"That's the challenge with these independents in there ... they're on the slimmest of majorities and they cannot afford to lose any seats."
Trailing in the polls, Prime Minister Scott Morrison's government can ill afford to lose ground in Victoria, a state that proved difficult for the coalition government at the last election despite its overall election victory.
Dr Ryan, a Hawthorn local and self-described political cleanskin despite a short stint as a Labor member, is confident Kooyong is winnable and that she can deliver a major blow to the coalition.
"If they lose Kooyong then that will reflect not just the disenchantment and disaffection in Kooyong but the fact that Victorians feel that the federal government has let them down in the last three years," she said.
While partially financed by clean tech investor Simon Holmes a Court's Climate 200 group, she says her campaign can't compete with Mr Frydenberg's spending power.
"We've got people paying for their own corflutes and real estate signs," says Dr Ryan, who insists Kooyong isn't the Liberal heartland it once was, citing the area's growing younger demographic.
Mr Frydenberg's office declined an interview request.
Long-time Liberal campaigner and political consultant Ian Hanke agrees the government will have to fight to defend seats like Chisholm, but doesn't subscribe to the notion a swing in Kooyong would be uniform.
"Each seat is fought on its own issues. What happens in Kooyong is not going to affect what happens in Gladys Liu's seat of Chisholm," he said, referring to the Liberal MP who won a narrow victory in the marginal electorate in 2019.
"Former prime minister John Howard used to say 'each election is an island, separated by a gulf in time from the previous election'."
The government's aspirations in Victoria are complicated by the retirement of senior Victorian Liberals Greg Hunt, Tony Smith and Kevin Andrews. Separately, Alan Tudge will recontest his seat of Aston after a report found there was insufficient evidence he breached ministerial standards during his affair with a former staffer.
After suffering through the depths of the pandemic, Victorians will assess the federal government's handling of the pandemic, and related health and economic issues, when it comes time to cast a ballot at an election that must be held by late May.
Victoria's Labor government was also highly critical of the Morrison government early in the pandemic for reputedly favouring NSW. Seeking its fourth term, the coalition faces the added burden of convincing voters it deserves more time in office.
Mr Hanke, who has worked on every federal election campaign since 1987, says he doesn't detect the same mood for change that has previously accompanied a change in government.
"Debate is starting to move beyond the pandemic and I think (the election) is going to be more about the future," Mr Hanke says.
He says there is time for the coalition to turn the polling around on the campaign trail.
"It's not going to be easy; no one is kidding themselves about that," he says.
"Whilst I'm not sanguine, I reckon, as we did in 2019, we can probably get across the line again."
Australian Associated Press
