Cuts to NDIS cuts will harm Australian economy: National Disability Services report

Peak body National Disability Services has published the analysis as it launches a new campaign urging candidates to reject cuts to the scheme ahead of the next federal election.

Debate over the future of the NDIS has raged throughout the year, with the federal government arguing a higher than expected increase in participant numbers and individual costs have put the scheme on an unsustainable trajectory.

Disability advocates, Labor and the Greens have disputed the government's figures, which they claimed were being pushed to justify cost cuts and contentious reforms - including the now abandoned introduction of independent assessments.

NDIS Minister Linda Reynolds has previously ruled out budget cuts, but continues to sound warnings about the scheme's cost and long-term sustainability.

In a report to be published on Thursday, progressive think tank Per Capita examined the cost and benefits of the NDIS and scrutinised the government's controversial cost projections.

The analysis found the scheme was a major economic multiplier, with every dollar of investment delivering a return of $2.25 as a result of job creation and spending on small local businesses.

On those numbers, the scheme would have delivered a $52 billion economic boost to the nation in the past financial year.

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The report warned that "excessive cost cutting" would be "self defeating", given any savings would effectively be offset by lost economic benefits.

The analysis found that every billion dollars cut from the scheme would result in the loss of more than 10,200 full-time jobs.

Women would account for the overwhelming majority of job losses, the research suggested.

The report also raised fresh questions about the figures the Morrison government was relying on to justify its concerns about the scheme's sustainability.

Under intense pressure over a lack of transparency, the National Disability Insurance Agency this year published an abridged version of its secret annual sustainability report, which includes modelling on the scheme's future cost.

The modelling projected that total participant costs would balloon $22.6 billion over budget in the next four years, on the back of higher than expected numbers of people joining the scheme, lower exit rates and growing individual budgets.

The Per Capita report said that while it was difficult to properly interrogate the modelling given that assumptions underpinning it remained secret, there were a number of red flags with the figures.

Its report cast doubt over the projections for participant numbers and exit rates, and criticised what it considered to be a failure to investigate how costs could have risen so quickly.

National Disability Services president Rohan Braddy said the analysis demonstrated how the scheme had been a "transformative economic and social reform".

"We have been concerned to see the focus change over the past year from the benefits of the scheme to the cost, with ongoing attempts to restrict access to the scheme and reducing supports available," Mr Braddy said.

The campaign, to be launched on Thursday, will warn the public that cuts to the NDIS will have "devastating" consequences for people with a disability, their families, carers and support workers - along with the wider Australian economy.

It will call on all federal election candidates to reject funding cuts to the scheme.

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