Bonne chance? Australia might need it on AUKUS nuclear submarines deal

In case Prime Minister Scott Morrison really thought some time, and some space, would quell Emmanuel Macron's anger at the announcement - which abruptly ended a $90 billion submarines contract with France's Naval Group - the French president disabused him of that idea on Sunday.

Mr Macron knew very well what he was doing when he spoke to Australian journalists about the AUKUS deal, and Mr Morrison's actions. There was an air of calm calculation about his words. If his intent was to express the depth of his disappointment, the damage the nuclear submarines deal had done to the Australia-France relationship, and to raise questions about Mr Morrison's handling of the AUKUS move, then he was bang on target.

He didn't overplay his anger, and even couched his disapproval of Mr Morrison's actions with a respectful recognition of Australia and France's friendship and shared history.

With two words, he also highlighted what is becoming increasingly clear about the AUKUS nuclear submarines arrangement: As an exercise in Australian defence procurement, it appears chimeric.

"Good luck," he said, noting that far from a signed contract, Australia right now has to wait 18 months for a review before the next steps in its new quest for submarines. Bonne chance, Australia.

This is where the nation sits less than a couple of months after the AUKUS deal, in a region with heightening geopolitical tensions and unresolved questions about Australia's ability to defend itself. Australia is falling out with its friends (France), while its closest ally gives a different version of events in the lead-up to the AUKUS announcement (it was "clumsy", Joe Biden says).

In hindsight, the AUKUS announcement seems true to form for Mr Morrison. It was high in marketing, fanfare and gloss, but lacking in substance, ham-fisted in execution and questionable in the respect it afforded to those who deserved it.

Add Australia's reputation as obstructing progress in international climate talks, its pathetically bare minimum net zero by 2050 position, and its refusal to support international agreements phasing out coal, and the nation cuts an increasingly lonely figure on the world stage.

Mr Morrison's trip overseas for both G20 and COP26 is, at this stage, disastrous. Australia's credibility seems to be ebbing, not just because of AUKUS but on climate action, too. Middle powers cannot afford to put their reputations at risk like this.

READ MORE:

The damage Mr Macron has inflicted on Mr Morrison with his comments on the AUKUS deal has not only international dimensions but domestic ones, too. It was Mr Macron's extraordinary comment that Mr Morrison had lied to him that holds the most danger for the Prime Minister.

The French president handed Mr Morrison's political opponents a line to bludgeon him with politically in the lead-up to the next election. In a poll that the Coalition wanted to make about trust, Mr Macron's comment that "I don't think, I know" Mr Morrison lied - will resound strongly. If voters needed an event to crystallise their misgivings about the Prime Minister, then this one might provide some clarity.

Mr Morrison at this stage looks like he'll come home a diminished figure. Given Australians pay attention to world affairs and notice how their leaders perform on its stage, that too could be politically damaging to the Prime Minister.

Our journalists work hard to provide local, up-to-date news to the community. This is how you can continue to access our trusted content: