NAB business survey shows big spike in confidence

She's not alone, either. Reopening road maps in virus plagued states has boosted business confidence that was quashed by the Delta wave lockdowns.

Latest figures from NAB's monthly business survey has recorded a major spike in confidence over the month of September, as a result of signals that lockdowns would cease by the end of October.

The owner of Sancho's Dirty Laundry in Braddon, Sancho Murphy , is looking forward to the end of lockdown in Canberra.

"Most of us are excited to get back to work because we actually all really love what we do. It gives us a sense of purpose," she said.

Ms Murphy did note access to relief grants has been incredibly frustrating, with the schemes implemented by the ACT and federal governments as inflexible for small business models.

"I think it doesn't take into consideration some of the unique structures of smaller and micro businesses," she said.

"It's more challenging to get [for small businesses] based on some of the criteria. For a business of my scale, not trading for one week can lead to a month's worth of damage."

Ms Murphy flagged supply of certain products remains an issue, a view also shared by NAB small business executive Ana Marinkovic.

Ms Marinkovic told the Canberra Times supply chain issues and skill shortages are likely to be short-term problems during the recovery, but said high vaccine rates is dramatically easing uncertainty within the economy.

"We do import a lot of the resources that are required for small businesses to do well and that is something that needs to unravel over time," Ms Marinkovic said.

"Vaccination levels and the commitment staying open, I think will give the sectors a lot more certainty."

Business confidence rebounded 19 points with NAB's index closing the month at 13 points, with the major uplifts felt in the ACT, New South Wales and Victoria.

Despite an upbeat outlook, the major bank's conditions measure fell 10 points to an index position of five points.

NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the rise in confidence indicated optimists outweighed pessimists, but said the fall in conditions was a sign the lockdowns have had a detrimental effect on the economy.

"Businesses are really looking forward to reopening, and confidence increased markedly on the back of NSW and Victoria's reopening roadmaps," Mr Oster said.

"The rise in confidence suggests they see the roadmaps that have been announced as sufficient to allow activity to really rebound in the coming months.

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"Conditions really deteriorated which shows that lockdowns are taking a toll, despite the resilience the economy has shown through this period."

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said mass vaccine uptake is diminishing the effectiveness of mass lockdowns, with NSW's recent reopening showing a road map to living with the virus.

"Notably, NAB point to improvement in business confidence being closely followed by improvement in business conditions once states reopen," Mr Frydenberg said.

According to the major bank, the biggest improvements were felt in wholesaling, construction, recreation and personal services.

Capacity utilisation fell from 80.1 per cent in August to 78.4 per cent in September, and is currently 7 percentage points below pre-lockdown levels.

Forward orders over the month dropped seven points to negative one index point.

"There was a large hit to capacity utilisation in September which is now well down from its pre-lockdown peak," Mr Oster said.

"That is a further sign of the significant slack in the economy as everyone waits for lockdowns to come to an end."

Mr Oster noted the economy is likely to see the biggest rebound once the recovery is underway in October and November.

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