The release of Kylie Moore-Gilbert came as something of a surprise to observers of the political situation in Iran. While Australia had been working diplomatically for her release since she was arrested in August 2018, there did not seem to be much that Australia could offer to Iran to make it attractive enough for Tehran to release her.
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It seemed more likely that any breakthrough would come from her British connections, as she is also a British national. [Since 1979, Britain has been withholding substantial Iranian funds (with interest due - possibly as much as £500 million) that Iran wants returned.]
There was a precedent for returning these funds. Several Americans being detained in Iran were released in January 2016 in exchange for the release of Iranian funds held by the US. The amount involved was $US400 million, comprising funds frozen since 1981. As in the UK case, the money was part of a fund originally set up for the Shah's Iran to purchase military equipment prior to the Iranian revolution in 1979.
The three Iranians that were exchanged for Dr Moore-Gilbert have been identified as Saeed Moradi, Mohammad Hazaei and Masoud Sedaghat Zadeh. They were all involved in the 2012 bomb blasts in Bangkok that injured five people. Their intent was to kill Israeli diplomats in retaliation for Mossad assassinations in Iran.
The three Iranians are believed to be members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The day before the Bangkok blasts there had been similar Iranian attacks on Israeli diplomats in Tbilisi and New Delhi.
In the aftermath of the Bangkok blasts, Saeed Moradi lost both his legs when a grenade he threw at responding Thai police officers bounced back and detonated near him. Mohammad Hazaei was arrested at the airport as he attempted to leave Thailand. Masoud Sedaghat Zadeh was arrested by Royal Malaysian Police officers at Kuala Lumpur International Airport when he tried to travel on to Iran; he was subsequently extradited back to Thailand.
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Saeid Moradi was sentenced to life imprisonment while Mohammad Hazaei was sentenced to 15 years' imprisonment and deportation. It's likely that Masoud Sedaghat Zadeh was also sentenced to 15 years' imprisonment and deportation, but that information is not publicly available.
The negotiation for Dr Moore-Gilbert's release would have been complex, given the nature of Iran's bureaucracy and competing interests within it, and the three (or possibly four) countries involved in the negotiation: Iran, Thailand, Australia and the UK.
It's not clear who came up with the suggestion of exchanging the three IRGC operatives for the academic, but Australia presumably took the lead in negotiating the three-way swap - and possibly had to offer something to Thailand in return for its co-operation.
DFAT's usual preference is for "quiet diplomacy" but there is little doubt that Dr Moore-Gilbert's support group in Australia had put considerable pressure on the Morrison government to keep it sufficiently energised to negotiate her release.
Iran's cynical jailing of foreigners to gain international leverage is reprehensible, but to some extent understandable given the sanctions and barriers that have been erected, mainly by the Trump administration under pressure from Israel, to limit Iran's regional activities.
Iran may be hoping that by showing a more accommodating face to the world, it will fare better under the Biden administration. Most Western countries are of the view that it would be better to work with Iran to contain any nuclear ambitions, rather than trying to do so by isolating and demonising it.
- Clive Williams is a visiting professor at the ANU's Centre for Military and Security Law. He has travelled widely in Iran.
