Economic recovery will be significantly slower than the coronavirus-driven crash, economist Saul Eslake believes.
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"The path out of the hole our economy is now in won't be as steep as the path in has been," Mr Eslake said in a presentation for an online forum hosted by the Youth Network of Tasmania on Monday.
Mr Eslake said international borders except with New Zealand were likely to stay closed until a vaccine was available.
He said that was likely to be at least a year away, implying there would be no recovery for at least that long in international tourism and international education.
There was also a risk of economic "setback" when government support programs ended or if restrictions on movement and gatherings had to be reimposed.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures based on payrolls suggested Tasmania lost 20,500 jobs between March 14 and April 18 and regained about 2000 in the following two weeks.
Mr Eslake did not expect employment would "snap back" quickly.
He said some businesses would not have survived the shutdown period and many of those which did would not immediately return to the job numbers they had before the outbreak.
That meant employment would stay below pre-outbreak levels for some time and some returning workers might have reduced hours for some time.
Mr Eslake said new health and safety regulations would be likely to limit the numbers of employees and customers able to be at business premises, meaning it might not be economic for some to reopen until the restrictions were relaxed.
He expected social distancing requirements would be relaxed gradually, not all at once, and many people would be wary regardless.
Mr Eslake argued the recovery in household spending was likely to be gradual, especially if the jobs recovery was gradual.
He said it was likely many businesses would be hesitant about investment spending for some time, while many households would want to rebuild their savings rather than spend.
Mr Eslake said the improvement in Tasmania's economy in recent years owed much to an increase in migration.
He questioned whether migration would resume, and when.
